Bates, B.C., and Townley, L.R. (1988), Nonlinear, discrete flood estimation models, 3. Analysis of prediction uncertainty, Journal of Hydrology, 99, 91-101.

This series of papers consists of three parts. Part 1 described and illustrated the application of maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimation to nonlinear, discrete flood event models. Part 2 dealt with the application of measures of statistical nonlinearity to model and rainfall-runoff data set combinations. The present paper (Part 3) is concerned with the assessment of the precision of model predictions. The use of first-order, second-order and Monte Carlo analyses to evaluate the prediction uncertainty caused by errors in model parameter estimates is described. A case study is presented to demonstrate the utility of prediction uncertainty analysis.


Copyright © 2005 by Lloyd Townley
Last revised: 6 May 2005